SITREP

The SITREP (situation report) is EHW's written assessment of the world picture, with one global threat level.

When it runs

A new report is written every 6 hours, at 00:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00 UTC. An extra report runs between those times when the picture changes materially, at most once every 10 minutes.

How it is written

The report is produced in five stages:

1. Triage: pick the events that matter from everything current.
2. Deep analysis of those events.
3. Synthesis into one picture.
4. Predictions of what may follow, each with its deadline, why we think it, a confidence stated as a probability (high about 80%, medium about 55%, low about 30%), and what would prove it wrong. Every prediction is graded after its deadline against what was reported, and the record, misses included, is public on the predictions page.
5. Threat level: CRITICAL, HIGH, ELEVATED, GUARDED or LOW.

Natural hazards and cyber events are left out of the global threat level. A season of routine storms should not read as a world in crisis.

The model

The writing is done by a language model run on EHW's own hardware. Cloud models are not used unless the operator turns them on.

When the model is unavailable

The page never shows an empty report. If the model cannot be reached or fails, EHW writes a plain data summary instead, built from the same events without AI. See Known limits.

The timeline

The intelligence timeline is produced the same way and looks further ahead. It covers the next hour (refreshed hourly), and the next day, week, month and year.