Doomsday Clock
The Doomsday Clock is one number from 0 to 100 for civilisation-scale risk. It deliberately ignores most of what is on the map. A local storm, a wildfire or a moderate earthquake does not move it.
What counts
Each part has a cap, so no single kind of event can fill the clock on its own.
| Part | Cap | What adds to it |
|---|---|---|
| Conflict | 50 | Armed conflict involving a nuclear-armed state adds 20. Any other conflict adds 3, plus 5 if it scores 85 or more. |
| Nuclear rhetoric | 35 | Reporting of nuclear threats, weighted by severity. |
| Economic chokepoints | 20 | Disruption at the straits and canals world trade depends on. |
| Space weather | 10 | NOAA geomagnetic, solar radiation and radio blackout scales, from level 1 up. Level 5 counts for most. |
| Seismic | 3 | Earthquakes of magnitude 8.5 or more only. |
| Volcanic | 2 | Eruptions at a red aviation colour code only. |
The parts add up on a curve that flattens near the top, so ordinary risk, however much of it, stays below 99. A world war reads about 95.
What turns it red
Only a civilisation-scale fact reaches 99, and it does so on its own:
- Nuclear use in war reads 99. Use by two or more countries, or two or more strategic strikes, reads 100.
- A pandemic spread to 100 or more countries reads 99.
- An asteroid at Torino 8 or 9 reads 99, and Torino 10 reads 100.
Each of these holds until it is stood down or contained.
When the feeds are down
If no feed has reported for two hours, the clock goes grey and says "Unavailable". It shows no number and no needle rather than a calm reading it cannot back up.
Stages
| Score | Stage |
|---|---|
| 0 to 29 | Siloed |
| 30 to 64 | Engines On |
| 65 to 98 | Ready to Launch |
| 99 and above | What Have We Done?? |
Rate limit
The clock moves at most 5 points per update, so one noisy headline cannot swing it. The limit is lifted when the raw score reaches 60 or more, or during a nuclear event, because a real escalation should show at once.