North Anatolian Fault
Turkiye · continental transform · 8406.1 km of mapped active fault in 44 traces
background as of 7 November 2026.
consistent with baseline
| Window | the last 30.0 days |
|---|---|
| Earthquakes counted | 0 at M4.5 or above |
| Expected in that window | 0.36 |
What this system normally does
From 1995 to 2025 the catalogue holds 130 earthquakes of M4.5 or larger attributable to this system: about 4.33 a year. That figure is what "elevated" on this page is measured against.
The fault itself
| Mapped length | 8406.1 km |
|---|---|
| Traces | 44 |
| Tectonic setting | continental transform |
| Slip types | Dextral, Dextral-Normal, Dextral-Reverse |
| Depth attributed to it | down to 50.0 km |
| Extent | 39.36 to 41.12 latitude, 25.01 to 40.55 longitude |
Recorded history
NOAA's hazard records hold 70 significant earthquakes and 18 tsunamis attributed to this system since 120.
The deadliest was the 26 December 1939 magnitude 7.8 earthquake (Turkey: Erzincan), which killed 32,700 people.
The most recent entry is the 10 August 2025 magnitude 6.1 earthquake (Turkey: Balikesir), which killed one person.
Across the entries that record a death toll, 80,272 people died.
| Date | What | Where | Toll |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 December 1939 | magnitude 7.8 earthquake | Turkey: Erzincan | 32,700 dead, 120,000 homes destroyed, $20 million damage |
| 26 December 1939 | tsunami (waves to 0.5 m) | South Black Sea | 32,700 dead, 120,000 homes destroyed, $20 million damage |
| 17 August 1999 | magnitude 7.6 earthquake | Turkey: Istanbul, Kocaeli, Sakarya | 17,118 dead, $20,000 million damage |
| 17 August 1999 | tsunami (waves to 2.5 m) | Kocaeli, Turkey | 17,118 dead, $20,000 million damage |
| 10 September 1509 | magnitude 7.7 earthquake | Turkey: Istanbul | 5,000 dead, 1,700 homes destroyed, damage over $25 million |
| 10 September 1509 | tsunami (waves to 6 m) | Marmara Sea | 5,000 dead, 1,700 homes destroyed, damage over $25 million |
| 26 November 1943 | magnitude 7.5 earthquake | Turkey: Ladik, Samsun, Havza | 4,020 dead, 40,000 homes destroyed, damage over $25 million |
| 22 May 1766 | magnitude 6.5 earthquake | Turkey | 4,000 dead, damage over $25 million |
| 9 August 1912 | magnitude 7.2 earthquake | Turkey: Marmara Sea | 2,800 dead, 24,700 homes destroyed, damage over $25 million |
| 9 August 1912 | tsunami (waves to 2.7 m) | Marmara Sea | 2,800 dead, 24,700 homes destroyed, damage over $25 million |
| 1 February 1944 | magnitude 7.6 earthquake | Turkey | 2,381 dead, damage $5 to 25 million |
| 28 February 1855 | magnitude 6.7 earthquake | Turkey: Tayabas, Bursa | 2,200 dead, damage $5 to 25 million |
| 2 September 1754 | magnitude 6.8 earthquake | Turkey: Izmit | 2,000 dead, damage over $25 million |
| 10 July 1894 | magnitude 6.7 earthquake | Turkey | 1,349 dead, damage $5 to 25 million |
| 10 July 1894 | tsunami (waves to 4.5 m) | Marmara Sea | 1,349 dead, damage $5 to 25 million |
| 29 April 1855 | magnitude 6.7 earthquake | Turkey: Bursa | 1,300 dead, damage $5 to 25 million |
| 18 March 1953 | magnitude 7.3 earthquake | Turkey: Yenice, Onon | 1,070 dead, $4 million damage |
| 20 December 1942 | magnitude 7.0 earthquake | Turkey: Niksar, Erbaa | 1,000 dead, damage over $25 million |
| 12 November 1999 | magnitude 7.2 earthquake | Turkey: Bolu-duzce-kaynasli, Adapazari, Zonguldak | 894 dead, $1,000 million damage |
| 12 May 1866 | magnitude 7.2 earthquake | Turkey: Goynuk | 675 dead, 2,400 homes destroyed, damage $5 to 25 million |
| 13 March 1992 | magnitude 6.9 earthquake | Turkey: Erzincan | 653 dead, $750 million damage |
| 17 August 1949 | magnitude 6.8 earthquake | Turkey: Karliova | 320 dead, damage $5 to 25 million |
| 20 June 1943 | magnitude 6.4 earthquake | Turkey: Hendek, Adapazari | 285 dead, damage $5 to 25 million |
| 26 July 1967 | magnitude 6.2 earthquake | Turkey: Tunceli | 97 dead, damage $5 to 25 million |
| 22 July 1967 | magnitude 7.3 earthquake | Turkey: Mudurnu, Adapazari | 86 dead, $3 million damage |
These are the 25 deadliest and largest of 88 entries. A dash means NOAA recorded no number, not that nobody died. Older entries are fewer because fewer were written down, not because less happened.
Recorded history: NOAA NCEI hazard databases, public domain, retrieved 2026-10-22.
Published rupture probability
Murru et al. 2016, JGR Solid Earth (INGV and USGS) publishes a probability for this system. It is their figure, not ours:
| Probability | 35%, or 47% allowing for stress transfer |
|---|---|
| For an earthquake of | M7.3 or larger |
| Within | 30 years |
| As of | 2016 |
For Istanbul, on the Sea of Marmara segment. A peer-reviewed study rather than an official Turkish forecast: AFAD publishes a ground-shaking hazard map, not a segment rupture probability.
Read the issuer's own publication
Who to listen to if you live here
AFAD, Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency is the agency that tells people on this system what to do. https://deprem.afad.gov.tr/ (in Turkish)
Other systems in Turkiye
Where these numbers come from
Fault geometry, length and segment counts: GEM Global Active Faults Database (GEM GAF-DB), GEM Foundation, https://github.com/GEMScienceTools/gem-global-active-faults Licence: CC-BY-SA-4.0. Figures derived from it here are offered under the same licence. Earthquake counts, magnitudes and depths: United States Geological Survey, public domain. The activity judgement is ours, computed from those two inputs, and is not a statement by either agency.