Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault
San Francisco Bay Area, USA · continental transform · 393.6 km of mapped active fault in 4 traces
unknown as of 7 November 2026.
no baseline good enough to compare against; the catalogue holds too few events on this system to say what normal is
| Window | the last 30.0 days |
|---|---|
| Earthquakes counted | 0 at M4.5 or above |
| Expected in that window | 0.00 |
What this system normally does
From 1995 to 2025 the catalogue holds 8 earthquakes of M4.5 or larger attributable to this system: about 0.27 a year. That figure is what "elevated" on this page is measured against.
Confidence in that rate is low: the catalogue holds too few events here for the average to carry much weight, and this system is never called elevated on the strength of it alone.
The fault itself
| Mapped length | 393.6 km |
|---|---|
| Traces | 4 |
| Tectonic setting | continental transform |
| Slip types | Dextral |
| Depth attributed to it | down to 50.0 km |
| Extent | 37.23 to 38.76 latitude, -123.00 to -121.66 longitude |
Recorded history
NOAA's hazard records hold 6 significant earthquakes and one tsunami attributed to this system since 1868.
The deadliest was the 21 October 1868 magnitude 6.8 earthquake (California: Hayward, San Francisco), which killed 30 people.
The most recent entry is the 24 August 2014 magnitude 6.0 earthquake (California: Napa, Vallejo), which killed one person.
Across the entries that record a death toll, 32 people died.
| Date | What | Where | Toll |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 October 1868 | magnitude 6.8 earthquake | California: Hayward, San Francisco | 30 dead, damage under $1 million |
| 21 October 1868 | tsunami (waves to 4.5 m) | N. California | 30 dead, damage under $1 million |
| 24 August 2014 | magnitude 6.0 earthquake | California: Napa, Vallejo | 1 dead, 160 homes destroyed, $700 million damage |
| 2 October 1969 | magnitude 4.8 earthquake | California: Santa Rosa | 1 dead, $8 million damage |
| 31 March 1898 | magnitude 6.5 earthquake | California: Sonoma County | damage $1 to 5 million |
| 3 September 2000 | magnitude 5.0 earthquake | California: Napa | $50 million damage |
| 20 July 2007 | magnitude 4.2 earthquake | California: Montclair | damage under $1 million |
A dash means NOAA recorded no number, not that nobody died. Older entries are fewer because fewer were written down, not because less happened.
Recorded history: NOAA NCEI hazard databases, public domain, retrieved 2026-10-22.
Published rupture probability
USGS, UCERF3 (Fact Sheet 2016-3020) publishes a probability for this system. It is their figure, not ours:
| Probability | 33% |
|---|---|
| For an earthquake of | M6.7 or larger |
| Within | 30 years |
| As of | 2016 |
Read the issuer's own publication
Who to listen to if you live here
California Geological Survey is the agency that tells people on this system what to do. https://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/earthquakes (in English)
Where these numbers come from
Fault geometry, length and segment counts: GEM Global Active Faults Database (GEM GAF-DB), GEM Foundation, https://github.com/GEMScienceTools/gem-global-active-faults Licence: CC-BY-SA-4.0. Figures derived from it here are offered under the same licence. Earthquake counts, magnitudes and depths: United States Geological Survey, public domain. The activity judgement is ours, computed from those two inputs, and is not a statement by either agency.